Annie Duke

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Most people think that to make better decisions, they need more data. But in a world overflowing with information, the problem isn't a lack of data—it's a lack of "Data Wisdom."

I define Data Wisdom as the ability to distinguish between the signal of a sound process and the noise of a lucky outcome.

The core issue here is that our brains are hardwired for "resulting." When we see a positive outcome, we assume the decision was brilliant. When we see a negative one, we assume the decision was poor. This is a cognitive trap that prevents us from actually learning from our experience.

To simplify, think of a weather forecaster. If they say there is a 10% chance of rain and it actually rains, was the forecast "wrong"? Most people would say yes. But in a probabilistic world, that 10% event is simply one of the branches of the tree that happened to manifest. The forecast was correct; the outcome was just the unlikely one.

To achieve high-quality decision-making, you must learn to evaluate your choices based on the information you had at the time, not the result you got after the fact.

Still struggling to separate luck from skill? I teach a live, online cohort-based Maven course on how to make smarter, faster, and more confident choices, including how to:

Use probabilistic thinking to make sound decisions even when outcomes are unclear.

Strengthen analytical reasoning and strategic thinking in complex or ambiguous situations.

Create consistent habits and systems for disciplined, high-quality decision-making.

My next Maven cohort starts April 20th. Join us with this offer: https://bit.ly/45gc07V

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